Demography and population trends of Whooping Cranes

A comprehensive analysis of Whooping Crane (Grus americana) demography reveals that the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge/Wood Buffalo National Park population is unlikely to reach the target down-listing size of 1000 individuals by 2035, potentially delaying this milestone until the mid-2060s. Researchers estimated age-specific survival and natality rates using data from 12 cohorts of banded cranes, parameterizing an age-structured density-dependent model to project population sizes under different wintering ground carrying capacity scenarios. Findings indicate that even if all suitable habitat within a 100-km radius of their current range is occupied, the population may only reach approximately 700 individuals by 2035. The study highlights the potential for decreased growth rates due to territorial behavior and faithfulness to migratory routes, suggesting long-term challenges for recovery efforts.

Gil-Weir, K. C., Grant, W. E., Slack, R. D., Wang, H.-H., & Fujiwara, M. (2012). Demography and population trends of Whooping Cranes. Journal of Field Ornithology, 83(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1557-9263.2011.00349.x