An integrated approach for predicting the occurrence probability of an elusive species: the Southwest China serow

Researchers identified that the Southwest China serow (Capricornis milneedwardsii), a threatened species, is most likely to occur near well-protected areas with high forest cover, steep terrain, and elevated elevations in the Cat Ba Archipelago. Hunting pressure was found to be a significant factor, pushing serows into protected zones where ecological variables may have less influence. The study used an integrated approach combining literature reviews, expert interviews, field surveys, logistic generalized linear models, and Bayesian networks to model species occurrence probability. Sensitivity analysis and scenario modeling further elucidated the impact of environmental factors on serow presence. These findings provide critical insights for conservation planning, offering a framework to prevent local extirpation of this elusive species through targeted interventions.

Phan, T. D., Baxter, G. S., Phan, H. A. D., Mai, L. S., & Trinh, H. D. (2019). An integrated approach for predicting the occurrence probability of an elusive species: the Southwest China serow. Wildlife Research, 46(5), 386–397. https://doi.org/10.1071/wr18116