Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats

Climate change poses significant risks to coastal archaeological sites in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with potential impacts on up to 34% of documented sites due to past flooding, erosion, or storm action. Projections indicate that sea-level rise (SLR) and extreme sea-level (ESL) events could affect 14–25% of sites by 2050 and 18–34% by 2100 under high carbon emission scenarios. Erosion threats may impact over 30–40% of sites by these deadlines, accelerating post-2050 if emissions remain unchecked. The study employs the Maritime Endangered Archaeology inventory, a geospatial database integrating disturbance/threat assessments and external coastal change models, to address critical data gaps in MENA's coastal heritage preservation. While documentation is ongoing, this approach provides a foundational framework for evaluating climate-related risks to cultural sites in vulnerable regions.

Westley, K., Andreou, G., El Safadi, C., Huigens, H. O., Nikolaus, J., Ortiz-Vazquez, R., Ray, N., Smith, A., Tews, S., Blue, L., & Breen, C. (2021). Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats. The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology, 18(2), 251–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564894.2021.1955778