Research on prediction of tourists' quantity in Jiuzhaigou Valley scenic based on ABR@G integration model

A novel AI integration model, ABR@G, significantly enhances the accuracy of predicting tourist quantities at UNESCO World Heritage Sites, addressing the challenges posed by complex linear and non-linear data patterns. Unlike traditional models that rely on simple linear combinations or single-model approaches, this method combines seasonal ARMA, neural network, and revised ARIMA models using a specialized AI technique (GMDH). Applied to Jiuzhaigou Valley Scenic and Historic Interest Area, the ABR@G model demonstrated superior predictive performance, offering a robust tool for effective scenic management and environmental protection. This approach provides a foundation for better tourist flow regulation, mitigating potential environmental impacts.

Liao, Z., Jin, M., Luo, Y., Ren, P., & Gao, H. (2013). Research on prediction of tourists’ quantity in Jiuzhaigou Valley scenic based on ABR@G integration model. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 51(3/4), 176. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijep.2013.054028