Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Spain's UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WCHS) face significantly heightened climate risks by 2100, particularly under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, with three sites at risk of submergence due to sea level rise and extreme warming exceeding global averages. The study, using CMIP6 climate models, identifies critical threats including fire hazards (affecting eight WCHS, notably Atapuerca and Medina Azahara), hydrodynamic scouring, corrosion, biodegradation, and drought. While risks remain stable under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, they escalate dramatically under SSP5-8.5, emphasizing the need for carbon neutrality to mitigate impacts. The research combines historical fire risk data with future climate projections to prioritize protection measures for vulnerable sites.

Hu, H., & Hewitt, R. J. (2024). Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 113, 104855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104855