A Bayesian Re-Assessment of the Earliest Radiocarbon Dates from Tiwanaku, Bolivia

A Bayesian re-assessment of radiocarbon dates from Tiwanaku, Bolivia, challenges the long-held belief that the spiritual and political center of the Tiwanaku culture was founded around 300 BC. Instead, the analysis suggests a much later foundation date, likely around AD 110 (with a range of 50-170). This significant shift is based on two independent Bayesian models applied to archaeological contexts that were previously considered unreliable. The findings have profound implications for understanding the rise of Tiwanaku and its role in the development of archaic states in the Lake Titicaca Basin, as well as for widely used monolith and ceramic sequences.

Marsh, E. J. (2012). A Bayesian Re-Assessment of the Earliest Radiocarbon Dates from Tiwanaku, Bolivia. Radiocarbon, 54(2), 203–218. https://doi.org/10.2458/azu_js_rc.v54i2.15826