Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna

A probabilistic model of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna reveals that flank eruptions follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, with space-time varying intensities. The study, based on comprehensive historical data from 1610 to the present, demonstrates spatial nonhomogeneity and temporal nonstationarity in eruption patterns. It calculates recurrence rates to produce spatiotemporal probability maps predicting vent opening over the next 1, 10, and 50 years, providing critical insights for volcanic hazard assessment. Additionally, summit crater activity shows a significant increase in eruptive frequency since the mid-20th century, particularly after the formation of the Southeast Crater in 1971.

Cappello, A., Bilotta, G., Neri, M., & Negro, C. D. (2013). Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 118(5), 1925–1935. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrb.50190