Future Response of the Wadden Sea Tidal Basins to Relative Sea-Level rise—An Aggregated Modelling Approach

A critical threshold of approximately 80% of the maximum sustainable rate exists for sea-level rise before tidal basins, such as those in the Wadden Sea, begin a prolonged 'drowning' process. This finding emerges from an aggregated-scale morphological model (ASMITA) that reveals the response to accelerated sea-level rise is influenced not only by sediment equilibrium and time scales but also by grain size distribution. The study demonstrates that while basins may temporarily adjust to rising sea levels below this threshold, exceeding it leads to irreversible changes in intertidal flats—key ecological habitats—that can no longer sustain their current form. This insight is crucial for refining predictive models and guiding sustainable management of tidal systems facing climate change.

Lodder, Q. J., Wang, Z. B., Elias, E. P. L., van der Spek, A. J. F., de Looff, H., & Townend, I. H. (2019). Future Response of the Wadden Sea Tidal Basins to Relative Sea-Level rise—An Aggregated Modelling Approach. Water, 11(10), 2198. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102198