Understanding climate-change adaptation on Kakadu National Park, using a combined diagnostic and modelling framework: a case study at Yellow Water wetland

A combined diagnostic and modelling framework reveals that sea-level rise (SLR) on Kakadu National Park, particularly at Yellow Water wetland, may paradoxically foster collaboration between Indigenous and non-Indigenous knowledge systems. While SLR threatens freshwater ecosystems, cultural sites, and infrastructure, the study suggests it could unify responses to a shared threat. Mitigation measures like levees are proposed for localized protection, but broader adaptation hinges on engaging Kakadu Bininj in research and monitoring to enhance adaptive capacity amid irreversible landscape changes. The approach integrates governance analysis with qualitative modelling and Bayesian belief networks, offering a semi-quantitative tool for assessing SLR impacts on social–ecological systems.

Dutra, L. X. C., Bayliss, P., McGregor, S., Christophersen, P., Scheepers, K., Woodward, E., Ligtermoet, E., & Melo, L. F. C. (2017). Understanding climate-change adaptation on Kakadu National Park, using a combined diagnostic and modelling framework: a case study at Yellow Water wetland. Marine and Freshwater Research, 69(7), 1146–1158. https://doi.org/10.1071/mf16166