Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Climate Change and Bushfire Research Initiative

A significant decrease in the number of unplanned fires is projected for regions adjacent to planned burn areas within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA), according to an assessment using an updated landscape-scale fire regime model, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS. This model now incorporates enhanced capabilities, including expanded spatial data coverage, high-resolution weather inputs like BARRA products, and climate change projections for South-East Australia. The study also introduced a tool to calculate climate suitability, revealing a dramatic future decline in suitable climates for 8 broad vegetation types due to compounding drying and warming trends. Drying dominates mid-century projections, while warming becomes more pronounced by the end-of-century. The research provides open-source software via CRAN for ongoing development, optimizing resource allocation for fire management strategies.

Love, P., Remenyi, T., Harris, R., & Bindoff, N. (2019). Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Climate Change and Bushfire Research Initiative. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. https://doi.org/10.25959/9R30-QK42