Holocene variations in Lake Titicaca water level and their implications for sociopolitical developments in the central Andes

A rapid rise in Lake Titicaca's water levels, reaching its highest point after 1600 CE, coincided with significant sociopolitical shifts in the central Andes. Researchers reconstructed these changes using a transfer function model based on organic carbon stable isotopes and other geochemical variables, combined with paleoshoreline indicators. This reconstruction revealed that following a prolonged low stand during the Middle Holocene (4000 to 2400 BCE), lake levels surged by approximately 15 meters around 1800 BCE, with additional increases of 3 to 6 meters in subsequent steps. These dramatic changes likely forced populations to migrate to higher elevations, contributing to the emergence of the Tiwanaku culture at the end of the Formative Period (500 CE).

Guédron, S., Delaere, C., Fritz, Sherilyn. C., Tolu, J., Sabatier, P., Devel, A.-L., Heredia, C., Vérin, C., Alves, E. Q., & Baker, P. A. (2023). Holocene variations in Lake Titicaca water level and their implications for sociopolitical developments in the central Andes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(2). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215882120