Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East

A millennial-scale hydrologic instability in the Middle East, reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies near Tell Leilan in northeastern Syria, reveals that precipitation variability was a key factor influencing crop yields, economic systems, and human settlement patterns. This study links abrupt shifts to drier conditions around AD 1400 with significant societal changes, including the transition from sedentary village life to nomadization during the preindustrial era. By integrating climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and pollen-based agricultural records, researchers demonstrate that drought was a recurring challenge, contributing to population migrations and possibly accelerating the decline of the Ottoman Empire.

Kaniewski, D., Van Campo, E., & Weiss, H. (2012). Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10), 3862–3867. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116304109