Forecasting climate-resilient conservation futures for the White-bellied Heron ( Ardea insignis ) in Bhutan using coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate scenario

Bhutan's largest population of the critically endangered White-bellied Heron (Ardea insignis), one of the world's rarest birds, faces significant climate-induced habitat shifts. Projections indicate a potential expansion of suitable habitat from 8,219 km² under baseline conditions to 13,784 km² by 2100, but with increased fragmentation and suitability loss in unprotected areas like Monggar and Pemagatshel. Protected zones such as Royal Manas National Park remain resilient, while others may become unsuitable due to climate change. This study, Bhutan's first nationwide climate-informed habitat model, combines 361 verified occurrence records (2001–2024) with 24 environmental predictors using a weighted ensemble modeling framework—integrating generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and random forest algorithms—to project future distributions under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 scenarios. It highlights protection gaps, advocates for adaptive conservation strategies, and underscores the need for connectivity measures amid dynamic anthropogenic pressures.

Dendup, P., Chophel, U., Wangchuk, J., Phuntsho, D., Syldon, P., Dorji, T., Dhendup, P., Wangda, P., Namgyel, C., & Subba, M. (2026). Forecasting climate-resilient conservation futures for the White-bellied Heron ( Ardea insignis ) in Bhutan using coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate scenario. Avian Conservation and Ecology, 21(1). https://doi.org/10.5751/ace-03003-210102