Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania

Long-term herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, reveal a stable carrying capacity despite significant changes in grassland structure and species composition. While buffalo, elephant, and ostrich populations increased after the removal of Maasai pastoralists in 1974, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle, eland, kongoni, and waterbuck (wet season) declined substantially. The study also identified a persistent 4.83-year rainfall cycle influencing herbivore population size, with future trajectories projected under three climate change scenarios using historical data from 1963 to 2012.

Moehlman, P. D., Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H.-P., Runyoro, V. A., Coughenour, M. B., & Boone, R. B. (2020). Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania. Plos One, 15(3), e0212530. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212530