Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits‐of‐acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

A novel approach using limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis successfully constrained behavioral simulations of landscape evolution models (LEMs), addressing challenges posed by model equifinality and sparse calibration data. Applied to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK, this method improved the reliability of hydrological and geomorphic predictions, capturing high-magnitude sediment events with metrics ranging from 24.4% to 41.2%. The study highlights that integrating varying observation quality within uncertainty frameworks can refine model performance, offering a practical path toward full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation. This approach holds promise for better understanding flooding events and morphological changes in UNESCO World Heritage Sites like Derwent Valley Mills, where diverse but often limited data are available.

Wong, J. S., Freer, J. E., Bates, P. D., Warburton, J., & Coulthard, T. J. (2021). Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits‐of‐acceptability uncertainty analysis framework. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 46(10), 1981–2003. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5140