Predicting the future range and abundance of fallow deer in Tasmania, Australia

Fallow deer (Dama dama) populations in Tasmania, Australia, could exceed 1 million by the mid-21st century if current management practices remain unchanged. This projection, based on a spatially explicit population model, highlights significant risks to ecologically sensitive areas, including the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. The study estimates that without active intervention beyond existing hunting and crop protection permits, the deer's range and abundance will substantially increase over the next decade. The research combines demographic parameters with climate suitability models to forecast future impacts, providing critical insights for prioritizing management strategies in high-risk regions.

Potts, J. M., Beeton, N. J., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Williamson, G. J., Lefroy, E. C., & Johnson, C. N. (2015). Predicting the future range and abundance of fallow deer in Tasmania, Australia. Wildlife Research, 41(8), 633–640. https://doi.org/10.1071/wr13206