Study on the driving mechanism of lagged effects based on different time scales in a karst drainage basin in South China

A significant negative correlation (R < −0.8, Sig. < 0.01) between watershed lagged intensity and frequency was identified in the South China Karst region, with the Gumbel Copula showing the best fit for joint probability simulation. The study analyzed rainfall-runoff processes using a distributed lag regression model on monthly data from 1980 to 2020, revealing distinct time-scale characteristics of lagged effects. The coefficient of variation (Cv) varied significantly across scales, being greater than 1 at 1-, 3-, and 12-month intervals but less than 1 at 6- and 9-month scales. This research provides insights into drought propagation mechanisms in karst areas, offering a scientific basis for water resource management and disaster mitigation.

He, Z., Pan, S., Gu, X., Xu, M., & Wang, M. (2023). Study on the driving mechanism of lagged effects based on different time scales in a karst drainage basin in South China. Scientific Reports, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36098-0