Rainfall variability and socio-economic constraints on livestock production in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania

Pastoralists in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), Tanzania, face significant challenges due to rainfall variability and socio-economic constraints. Despite their awareness of climate change impacts—such as erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts—increasing herd sizes and mobility paradoxically intensify cattle losses by 10% and 98%, respectively. These findings challenge the assumption that larger herds or greater mobility cushion households against climate shocks. The study combined household interviews, Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), and archived data to reveal that rainfall accounts for only 32–46% of variability in livestock populations. Recommendations emphasize enhancing adaptive capacity through targeted interventions and further research into the profitability of pastoral cattle production under changing conditions.

Leweri, C. M., Msuha, M. J., & Treydte, A. C. (2021). Rainfall variability and socio-economic constraints on livestock production in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania. SN Applied Sciences, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-04111-0