Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

A recent study found stable or increasing landbird populations in three Pacific Northwest National Parks—Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic—between 2005 and 2014. Contrary to expectations in a changing climate, most species showed positive trends, particularly migratory birds across all parks and resident birds in one park. The research linked this stability to a regional snowfall deficit, as population density inversely correlated with precipitation-as-snow but weakly correlated with spring temperature. Using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models, the study integrated advanced statistical techniques to account for detection probabilities, spatial autocorrelation, and environmental covariates, providing a robust framework for climate impact assessment. This work highlights the resilience of park ecosystems while offering tools for adaptive management in the face of climate change.

Ray, C., Saracco, J. F., Holmgren, M. L., Wilkerson, R. L., Siegel, R. B., Jenkins, K. J., Ransom, J. I., Happe, P. J., Boetsch, J. R., & Huff, M. H. (2017). Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest. Ecosphere, 8(7). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1902