Regulating Subsidence and its uncertainty in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Gas production in the Dutch Wadden Sea often results in subsidence that can differ by a factor of two or three from initial predictions due to uncertainties in mechanisms and models. To manage these risks, the Dutch regulator, SSM, implemented an improved approach involving intensified field monitoring, scenario analysis covering uncertainty ranges, and advanced data analysis techniques like particle filters. This integrated control loop ensures that subsidence remains within allowed limits by continuously updating predictions, assessing measurements, and mitigating risks while closing knowledge gaps. The approach is supported by legal frameworks and operational conditions to protect the site's natural values.

de Waal, J. A., & Schouten, M. W. (2020). Regulating Subsidence and its uncertainty in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 382, 63–70. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-63-2020