Impact of Climate Change on Aridization in Central Asia

Climate change is significantly accelerating aridization and desertification risks in Central Asia, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Research using five CMIP6 climate models projects that while moderate warming (SSP1-2.6) may limit extreme dry periods until 2050, severe aridity could expand westward to eastward across the region by 2100 under aggressive emissions (SSP5-8.5). Southern mountainous areas may see slight precipitation increases, but northwest and southwest regions face potential decreases of up to -0.18 mm/day, worsening drought conditions. The study highlights urgent need for adapted agro-climatic measures and transboundary water resource planning in the UNESCO-listed Cold Winter Deserts of Turan.

Krylova, V., Ryssaliyeva, L., & Schwarz, D. P. (2026). Impact of Climate Change on Aridization in Central Asia. Towards Sustainable Future of Central Asia: Analysis of Climate, Resources and Human Security, 49–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-29989-5_3