Eruptive fracture location forecasts from high‐frequency events on Piton de la Fournaise Volcano

A new method for forecasting eruption locations on Piton de la Fournaise Volcano, a highly active basaltic volcano on La Réunion island, has been identified. Researchers discovered that high-frequency seismic events occurring during the quiescent period between volcano-tectonic swarms and eruptive tremors are strongly linked to future eruption sites. These shallow, short-duration events, lasting only a few hours, indicate the opening of magma pathways at shallow depths, even while magma is still propagating vertically. Unlike previous models that attributed such seismicity to direct magma pressure, this study suggests it reflects the volcano's generic response to stress perturbations, offering significant potential for improving short-term eruption location predictions. The findings are based on analysis of five eruptions between November 2009 and December 2010.

De Barros, L., Bean, C. J., Zecevic, M., Brenguier, F., & Peltier, A. (2013). Eruptive fracture location forecasts from high‐frequency events on Piton de la Fournaise Volcano. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(17), 4599–4603. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50890