The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy)

By 2150, the UNESCO-listed Cinque Terre coast—already threatened by sea-level rise—could see relative sea levels climb between 60 cm and 1.17 m under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), potentially flooding up to 22,079 m² of Monterosso’s harbor and Vernazza’s pocket beaches. Storm surges in the same scenario could push waves 13.36 m above current levels. Researchers combined high-resolution topography, tide-gauge records, and storm-surge modeling to project coastal hazards under three IPCC pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), revealing that low-lying harbor areas and narrow beaches are the most vulnerable. The findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation—quay elevation, drainage improvements—to protect critical transport and tourism infrastructure in this World Heritage Site.

Bosman, A., Anzidei, M., Trippanera, D., Greco, M., Raso, E., Vecchio, A., Alberti, T., Carmisciano, C., Georgiadis, C., Chiappini, M., Doumaz, F., Iafolla, L., Muccini, F., Patias, P., & Serpelloni, E. (2026). The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy). Remote Sensing, 18(11), 1735. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18111735