Extreme rainfall risk and climate change impact assessment for Edinburgh World Heritage sites

By the end of this century, extreme rainfall events due to climate change could increase annual damage to Edinburgh’s Old and New Towns World Heritage buildings by three to four times compared to baseline levels. The study applies a novel risk assessment framework—Cultural Heritage Climate Risk Assessment (CHCRA)—combining high-resolution climate models, expert input, and historical data to estimate future damage. Using the UK Met Office’s 2.2 km resolution model under RCP8.5 scenario, researchers project rising autumn and summer damages, with annual expected damage jumping from 0.6% to 2.3% of rebuild costs by 2061–2080. This underscores the urgent need for climate-adaptive conservation strategies in heritage management.

O’Neill, S., Tett, S. F. B., & Donovan, K. (2022). Extreme rainfall risk and climate change impact assessment for Edinburgh World Heritage sites. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, 100514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100514