Spatiotemporal trends in wood decay risk across European Russia (1961–2020): A Scheffer Climate Index analysis

A rising threat to wooden heritage sites, including Kizhi Pogost, is evident from a study analyzing spatiotemporal trends in wood decay risk across European Russia (1961–2020). Using the Scheffer Climate Index (SCI), which integrates temperature and precipitation data, researchers found significant upward SCI trends—up to 0.6 per year—in northern regions, driven primarily by warming temperatures. While high-risk zones remained stable (~13%), low-risk areas shrank by 9%, transitioning to moderate risk, particularly after the 2000s. The study highlights a shift in climatic threats, with temperature contributions to decay risk increasing by 5–20% while precipitation impacts declined—except in northern regions. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies to protect vulnerable heritage structures.

Vyshkvarkova, E., & Sukhonos, O. (2026). Spatiotemporal trends in wood decay risk across European Russia (1961–2020): A Scheffer Climate Index analysis. Időjárás, 130(1), 87–100. https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.5