Spatial impacts of the creation of Brasília: A natural experiment

A massive development initiative, such as the creation of Brasília and its associated highway network, had only limited population impacts and zero per capita income effects on Brazil's spatial structure outside of Brasília itself. Using a unique 'spatial-difference-in-differences' approach, the study examined data spanning 70 years (1939–2008) to test whether Brasília's inauguration in 1960 changed the country's urban population distribution and per capita GDP. The research controlled for various macroeconomic conditions, city-specific factors, convergence forces, industrial structure changes, and agglomeration impacts from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. While the western coastal and interior regions saw a statistically significant increase in their share of Brazil's urban population (from 4.8% in 1959 to 9.0% in 2008), no evidence of per capita income effects related to proximity to Brasília was found, indicating that even large-scale development projects may have limited broader economic impacts.

Grimes, A., Matlaba, V. J., & Poot, J. (2016). Spatial impacts of the creation of Brasília: A natural experiment. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 49(4), 784–800. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518x16684519