Modelling past and future wine production in the Portuguese Douro Valley

Climate change is projected to increase wine production in the UNESCO World Heritage-listed Alto Douro Wine Region, Portugal. A study published in 2011 found that future climate scenarios (A2 and B2) for 2071–2100 suggest higher yields due to warmer late spring and early summer conditions combined with reduced winter precipitation. Researchers developed robust linear regression models using climate variables—such as temperature, thermal amplitude, and precipitation—to predict wine production at key stages of the vine vegetative cycle (March and July). These models explained 90% of variance in mid-season predictions, highlighting climate's pivotal role. Notably, production increased between 1956–1985 and 1986–2006 due to shifting precipitation patterns, though CO₂ effects were not accounted for. The early-season model offers timely forecasts post-dormancy, while the mid-season model relies solely on meteorological data, underscoring climate's dominance in wine productivity.

Gouveia, C., Liberato, M., DaCamara, C., Trigo, R., & Ramos, A. (2011). Modelling past and future wine production in the Portuguese Douro Valley. Climate Research, 48(2), 349–362. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01006