Landscape Connectivity Modelling for the African Savannah Elephant With Spatial Absorbing Markov Chain and Predicting the Regenerative Power of the Range in a Mesic Protected Area

A high regenerative potential for the landscape of Mana Pools National Park (MPNP) is projected by 2083, offering hope for the long-term sustainability of African savannah elephant populations. This finding stems from a study that combined Spatial Absorbing Markov Chain (SAMC) modelling with cellular automata artificial neural networks (CA-ANN). The research identified critical micro-corridors and sub-landscape linkages essential for maintaining ecological connectivity, which are vital for the elephants' migratory and foraging behaviors. By analyzing multi-temporal satellite data, GPS collar data, road transects, and plot-based surveys from 2003 to 2023, the study revealed how land cover, slope, and terrain shape movement patterns in this mesic protected area. The projections underscore the resilience of semi-arid savannah landscapes and advocate for integrated conservation strategies to preserve functional connectivity, enhance biodiversity, and mitigate human-wildlife conflicts.

Mukomberanwa, N. T., Taru, P., Utete, B., Ngorima, P., & Madamombe, H. K. (2025). Landscape Connectivity Modelling for the African Savannah Elephant With Spatial Absorbing Markov Chain and Predicting the Regenerative Power of the Range in a Mesic Protected Area. African Journal of Ecology, 63(2). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/aje.70034