Assessing past and future climatic influences on the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat on Wrangel Island

Despite rising temperatures and sea ice loss, Wrangel Island's climate remains cold enough that the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat is not yet an immediate limiting factor for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation. A retrospective analysis (1980–2020) found no significant trends in the spatial or temporal availability of snowdrift habitat suitable for denning over 41 years. However, sensitivity simulations predict that a projected 7.6 °C temperature increase could reduce denning habitat by approximately 50%, while a rise of ≥13.6 °C could eliminate it entirely. The study used spatial modeling to evaluate potential denning habitat from September to December and assessed future climate change impacts on this critical habitat for polar bear reproduction.

Chinn, S. M., Liston, G. E., & Wilson, R. R. (2023). Assessing past and future climatic influences on the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat on Wrangel Island. Ecological Modelling, 484, 110479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110479