Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change is projected to significantly alter the habitat ranges of both native and invasive plant species within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) by 2090, threatening current vegetation-management strategies. Native plant species are expected to contract in range, particularly within Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), while most invasive species will also shrink in distribution, except for Lantana camara. The study combined climate modeling from the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM) with species distribution models, projecting changes under three climate trajectories (gradual, linear, rapid) for 39 plant species. Findings indicate a decline in congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEA boundaries over time, suggesting that current conservation efforts may need to adapt to shifting ecological conditions.

Camp, R. J., Berkowitz, S. P., Brink, K. W., Jacobi, J. D., Loh, R., Price, J., & Fortini, L. B. (2018). Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. Scientific Investigations Report. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185012