Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates: Abies religiosa upper altitudinal limit expansion by assisted migration

Research demonstrates that expanding the range of Abies religiosa (oyamel) to higher elevations is feasible, offering potential new overwintering sites for the Monarch butterfly under future climate conditions. The study found acceptable survival rates (44-68%) at elevations up to 4000 meters, though growth was limited at extreme sites. By analyzing transfer effects and environmental factors like annual dryness index, scientists projected that shifting populations by approximately 500 meters upward could mitigate the impacts of a 2.3°C increase in mean annual temperature expected by 2060. These findings suggest that establishing A. religiosa stands at 3600 and 3800 meters could serve as future overwintering habitats, though survival and growth would be lower than current conditions.

Sáenz-Romero, C., Osuna-Vallejo, V., Herrejón-Calderón, P., Pérez-Cruz, L. A., Joaquín-Juan, M. G., Cruzado-Vargas, A. L., O’Neill, G. A., Zacarías-Correa, A. G., Manzanilla-Quijada, G. E., Lindig-Cisneros, R., Blanco-García, A., Endara-Agramont, Á. R., & Lopez-Toledo, L. (2024). Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates: Abies religiosa upper altitudinal limit expansion by assisted migration. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1440517