Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

A critical gap between water availability and demand emerges by 2050 in the Vilcanota-Urubamba (VUB) catchment, Cusco, Peru, due to climate change and socio-economic pressures. Despite projected increases in water supply under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, unmet demand rises sharply—reaching 477 hm³/year by 2099 (RCP 4.5) and 446 hm³/year (RCP 8.5). Strategic management, such as reducing population growth and improving irrigation efficiency, can slash this deficit by up to 50% in all sub-basins. The study used the WEAP model, calibrated with Pisac hydrometric data (1987–2016), to simulate current (2010–2016) and future water security under varying scenarios. While present-day demand is met, long-term projections reveal uneven distribution of resources, underscoring the urgency of adaptive water governance in UNESCO-listed Cuzco.

Goyburo, A., Rau, P., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Buytaert, W., Cuadros-Adriazola, J., & Horna, D. (2023). Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú. Water, 15(7), 1439. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071439