Heat on fragile wings: evaluation of the risk of extinction of the Egyptian endemic butterfly Satyrium jebelia (Nakamura 1975) due to climate change

Climate change poses severe threats to the survival of Satyrium jebelia, Egypt's only endemic butterfly, with projections indicating a 50% loss of suitable habitat by 2050 and near-total extinction by 2070 under high-emission scenarios. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to assess habitat suitability across the Saint Catherine Area in Sinai, identifying mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the driest quarter as critical factors shaping its distribution. The model's high accuracy (AUC = 0.99) revealed that S. jebelia currently occupies less than 5% of the peninsula, with highly fragmented habitats vulnerable to rapid decline under both moderate and severe climate change scenarios. Given an projected 80% population reduction over three generations, urgent conservation action—including ex-situ breeding and IUCN Red List evaluation for Critically Endangered status—is recommended.

Al-Ashaal, S., Zalat, S., Al-Khalaf, A. A., & Nasser, M. (2026). Heat on fragile wings: evaluation of the risk of extinction of the Egyptian endemic butterfly Satyrium jebelia (Nakamura 1975) due to climate change. Écoscience, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2026.2714556