Eruption forerunners from multiparameter monitoring and application for eruptions time predictability (Piton de la Fournaise)

A groundbreaking study on Piton de la Fournaise volcano reveals that combining seismicity and deformation data significantly enhances eruption prediction accuracy, reducing false alarms. Researchers identified three distinct precursory patterns: a seismic velocity change 100–50 days before eruptions, a power-law increase in seismicity rate 15–10 days prior, and an abrupt rise in displacement on the eruption day. These findings suggest a three-step magma transfer mechanism toward the surface. By applying statistical methods to multiparameter monitoring data from 1999–2006, the study demonstrates that integrating deformation with seismicity data outperforms single-parameter predictions, offering a robust tool for decision-makers to optimize eruption prediction strategies based on risk levels.

Schmid, A., Grasso, J. R., Clarke, D., Ferrazzini, V., Bachèlery, P., & Staudacher, T. (2012). Eruption forerunners from multiparameter monitoring and application for eruptions time predictability (Piton de la Fournaise). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B11). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jb009167