A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau

A groundbreaking approach to evaluate permafrost changes in the Qinghai Hoh Xil region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has been developed, bypassing the need for spatially distributed meteorological data. This method relies instead on regional climate change processes or temperature change rates, centered around a transient heat conduction permafrost model. Applied to the Hoh Xil from 1960 to 2015 using data from the Wudaoliang Meteorological Station, the approach demonstrated high accuracy, with simulated and observed mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) changes differing by less than 0.04 °C per decade at five monitoring sites. Model validation further confirmed its reliability for long-term predictions. Future simulations based on the latest warming scenarios project significant permafrost degradation under severe climate change conditions, with most of Hoh Xil's permafrost becoming warm (MAGT > −1 °C) by 2100. This innovative method offers a new perspective for studying permafrost dynamics in regions with limited meteorological data.

Zhang, Y.-X., Zhao, L., Xie, C.-W., Hu, G.-J., Yang, S.-H., Zou, D.-F., Qiao, Y.-P., Li, X.-F., & Peng, J.-J. (2024). A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau. Advances in Climate Change Research, 15(6), 1040–1056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.005