The correlation between three teleconnections and leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka, 2004–2019

A significant correlation between three major teleconnections—El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—and leptospirosis incidence (LI) in the Kandy District of Sri Lanka has been identified. The study, spanning 2004 to 2019, found that these teleconnections modulate LI with lag periods ranging from 1.9 to 11.5 months, likely through their influence on local rainfall and other weather parameters. Using wavelet time series analysis and time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), researchers confirmed strong correlations between ENSO, IOD indices, and LI, with lag periods of 2-5 months. The findings suggest that monitoring extreme teleconnection events could help mitigate leptospirosis outbreaks by implementing preventive measures during critical lag periods.

Ehelepola, N. D. B., Ariyaratne, K., Aththanayake, A. M. S. M. C. M., Samarakoon, K., & Thilakarathna, H. M. A. (2021). The correlation between three teleconnections and leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka, 2004–2019. Tropical Medicine and Health, 49(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-021-00325-z