Toward anticipatory adaptation: Transforming social‐ecological vulnerabilities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

A study of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, reveals that state-led adaptation strategies to flooding, while initially practical, can inadvertently reduce adaptive capacity for vulnerable groups like the Bayei tribe. The research highlights how increased regulation and encouragement to shift from wetland-based livelihoods may exacerbate social-ecological vulnerabilities, particularly for ethnic minorities with strong cultural ties to the Delta's waters. The findings underscore the need for anticipatory adaptation approaches that address structural vulnerability and adaptive capacity, considering historical marginalization and future environmental variability. The study used household interviews, participant observation, and surveys to assess the impacts of high floods (2009–2011) and local responses, situating them within broader political-ecological contexts.

Shinn, J. E. (2017). Toward anticipatory adaptation: Transforming social‐ecological vulnerabilities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. The Geographical Journal, 184(2), 179–191. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12244