Modeling Predictions of the Impact of the Accidental Leaks from Water Supply Networks on the Hydrogeological and Geotechnical Conditions of the Architectural Heritage Sites of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra

A modeling analysis predicts that accidental leaks from water supply networks, such as the October 2022 heating network incident at Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, pose significant risks to the hydrogeological and geotechnical stability of its architectural heritage. The study, using HYDRUS1D and Visual Modflow models, identified zones of subsidence risk, particularly affecting fortress walls, towers, and historical buildings on the western and southern perimeters due to rising groundwater tables and flooding of loess soils. Theoretical moisture content and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity models for loess soils were developed based on Van Genuchten–Mualem equations, enabling calibrated predictions of long-term hazards from emergency leaks. These findings highlight the vulnerability of UNESCO-listed sites like Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra to infrastructure failures.

Kubko, Y., Bugai, D., Zanoz, B., & Cherevko, I. (2024). MODELING PREDICTIONS OF THE IMPACT OF THE ACCIDENTAL LEAKS FROM WATER SUPPLY NETWORKS ON THE HYDROGEOLOGICAL AND GEOTECHNICAL CONDITIONS OF THE ARCHITECTURAL HERITAGE SITES OF THE KYIV PECHERSK LAVRA. Collection of Scientific Works of the Institute of Geological Sciences of the NAS of Ukraine, 17(2), 99–116. https://doi.org/10.30836/igs.2522-9753.2024.316542