Análisis de peligro sísmico probabilístico para la ciudad de Arequipa, Perú

Arequipa, Peru, located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, faces significant seismic risk due to tectonic plate convergence. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) reveals that earthquakes with magnitudes between 7.5 and 8.0, occurring 100-150 km away, pose the greatest threat, contributing to high ground acceleration values—up to 0.80g for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The study, incorporating historical and instrumental seismic data from 1471 to 2023, models both subduction zones and quaternary faults, with the latter having minimal impact due to low slip rates. The analysis employs advanced methods, including maximum likelihood estimation for seismological parameters and logical frameworks to address epistemic uncertainties, providing critical insights for seismic risk assessment in this high-hazard region.

Concha Tejada, J. C., Gonzales, C., Monroy, M., & Tarazona, J. C. (2026). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Arequipa city, Peru. Tecnia, 35(2), 55–68. https://doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v35i2.2521