Multi-temporal relative landslide risk analysis for sustainable development of rapidly growing cities

A multi-temporal relative landslide risk analysis for Cuenca, Ecuador, reveals that municipalities in the southern and hilly sectors of the city face significantly higher current and future landslide risks due to population growth. The study used electricity supply contract data as a proxy for population distribution, combined with machine learning-based landslide susceptibility models, to identify areas at increasing risk between 2010 and 2020. Key findings indicate that municipalities like Turi, Valle, Santa Ana, Tarqui, and Paccha are currently the most vulnerable, while hilly areas surrounding the city center (e.g., Sayausi, San Joaquin) show a growing trend in risk due to sustained urban expansion. The approach offers a scalable tool for land-planning, occupation restrictions, and early warning strategies, particularly applicable to rapidly growing cities in low- to mid-income countries with limited data availability.

Di Napoli, M., Miele, P., Guerriero, L., Annibali Corona, M., Calcaterra, D., Ramondini, M., Sellers, C., & Di Martire, D. (2021). Multi-temporal relative landslide risk analysis for sustainable development of rapidly growing cities. https://doi.org/10.31223/x5x918