Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitors

Climate change is significantly increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses (HRIs) among visitors to Grand Canyon National Park, with projections indicating a 29%-137% rise by 2100 compared to 2004-2009 levels. The study found that HRI incidence is strongly linked to maximum daily temperature and minimum relative humidity, particularly during shoulder season months when visitors are more susceptible due to physical exertion and lack of adaptation. Researchers developed a model using historical data on HRIs, visitation rates, and weather conditions, then applied future climate projections to assess potential risks. These findings highlight the urgent need for land management agencies to update risk mitigation strategies, such as enhancing search-and-rescue operations and public education, to address the growing threat of extreme heat in iconic public lands.

Buttke, D. E., Raynor, B., & Schuurman, G. W. (2023). Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitors. Plos One, 18(8), e0288812. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288812