Bayesian Analysis to Evaluate Tests for the Detection of Mycobacterium Bovis Infection in Free-Ranging Wild Bison (Bison Bison Athabascae) in the Absence of a Gold Standard

Bayesian analysis demonstrates that combining the caudal-fold skin test (CFT) with a rapid lateral-flow serologic test (RT) significantly enhances sensitivity for detecting Mycobacterium bovis infection in free-ranging wood bison, offering a promising strategy to improve disease control and eradication efforts. The study estimated the performance of three diagnostic tests—CFT, fluorescent polarization assay (FPA), and RT—using Bayesian modeling without relying on a gold standard. CFT proved most sensitive, while RT was the most specific, with their combination outperforming individual or paired tests in parallel. Prior assumptions influenced absolute estimates but not relative rankings, underscoring Bayesian analysis as a robust tool for ranking diagnostic strategies under field conditions where perfect standards are unattainable.

Chapinal, N., Schumaker, B. A., Joly, D. O., Elkin, B. T., & Stephen, C. (2015). BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE TESTS FOR THE DETECTION OF MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS INFECTION IN FREE-RANGING WILD BISON (BISON BISON ATHABASCAE) IN THE ABSENCE OF A GOLD STANDARD. Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 51(3), 619–625. https://doi.org/10.7589/2013-09-254