Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin

Lake Baikal, the deepest and largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, is experiencing rapid warming at nearly twice the global average rate. A study analyzing hydro-climatic trends from 1938 to 2009 in the Selenga River Basin—Lake Baikal's largest sub-basin—reveals significant permafrost degradation, indicated by reduced intra-annual river discharge variability. Projections using CMIP5 models suggest continued warming and permafrost thaw, though future runoff changes remain highly uncertain due to model discrepancies. The research combines long-term monitoring data with historical observations and climate model projections (1961–2099) to assess these trends.

Törnqvist, R., Jarsjö, J., Pietroń, J., Bring, A., Rogberg, P., Asokan, S. M., & Destouni, G. (2014). Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 1953–1962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.074