Statistical model and assessment of geo-ecological changes in Al-Hoviz alluvial marches in southeastern Iraq and further forecasting of the water level in them

A descending trend in water levels is projected for the Al-Hoviz alluvial marshes in southeastern Iraq by 2029, driven primarily by precipitation and river flow dynamics. This finding stems from a statistical model analyzing climatic-hydrological interactions, including electrical conductivity, dissolved solids, temperature, and vegetation indices (NDVI) from 2010 to 2019. Key factors influencing water volume (W AM) and surface area (F) include precipitation and the flow of the Al-Musharrah River, while temperature and wind speed also play significant roles. The study employed factor analysis and forecasting via the Holt-Winters method in Minitab 18 and Statistica to highlight critical variables requiring urgent monitoring for conservation efforts.

Shirokova, V., & Al-Nussairi, H. K. (2021). Statistical model and assessment of geo-ecological changes in Al-Hoviz alluvial marches in southeastern Iraq and further forecasting of the water level in them. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 867(1), 12144. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/867/1/012144