Rainfall and temperature changes under different climate scenarios at the watersheds surrounding the Ngorongoro Conservation Area in Tanzania

Future climate projections for the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) in Tanzania indicate significant increases in mean annual rainfall and temperature under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with spatial variations across seasons. Notably, while rainfall is expected to rise overall, a decrease is projected during the June-July-August-September (JJAS) season. The study utilized outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs), evaluated for accuracy using statistical indicators such as correlation, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency, and percentage bias. These findings provide critical data for sustainable planning and management of the NCA's watersheds under changing climatic conditions.

Mwabumba, M., Yadav, B. K., Rwiza, M. J., Larbi, I., Dotse, S.-Q., Limantol, A. M., Sarpong, S., & Kwawuvi, D. (2022). Rainfall and temperature changes under different climate scenarios at the watersheds surrounding the Ngorongoro Conservation Area in Tanzania. Environmental Challenges, 7, 100446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100446