Modelling of Carrying Capacity at Komodo National Park: System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Komodo Island and Padar Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province)

A system dynamics model predicts that Komodo National Park (KNP) could sustainably support 219,000 annual visits to Komodo Island and up to 98,550 visits to Padar Island by 2045, assuming current prey availability. However, without low-carbon development, the population of Komodo dragons (Varanus komodoensis) may decline from an estimated 2,500 to just 800–900 on these islands, while global temperatures rise by 0.8°C. The study highlights the critical balance between tourism management and ecological sustainability in this UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Firmansyah, I. (2023). Modelling of Carrying Capacity at Komodo National Park: System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Komodo Island and Padar Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province). Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), 13(3), 492–506. https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.13.3.492-506