Publications
Evaluación de impacto en áreas de conservación: retos y una herramienta para aplicar análisis contrafactuales
A robust analysis of 23 Colombian national parks reveals that protected areas significantly reduce deforestation, with effectiveness varying between -54% and 100%, though most show positive impacts (average 73.6%). The study introduces CONTRAFACTUAL, a counterfactual tool using propensity score matching to compare treated units (protected areas) against similar control regions. This methodology provides a rigorous framework for evaluating conservation strategies, addressing gaps in impact assessment and offering actionable insights for policymakers, managers, and stakeholders. By contextualizing deforestation metrics, the research demonstrates how contrafactual analysis can enhance adaptive learning and resource allocation in conservation efforts.
Una propuesta de análisis espacial para definir la dificultad de sustitución de la coca en parques nacionales naturales de Colombia
A multivariate spatial analysis model has been developed to assess the difficulty of replacing coca cultivation within Colombia's National Natural Parks, including Los Katíos National Park. This approach identifies key variables influencing coca production and trafficking, offering critical insights for policy refocusing beyond traditional prohibitionist strategies. The study highlights the convergence between drug trafficking and environmental protection challenges, providing a data-driven framework to guide more effective interventions in strategic natural areas.
Horizon du patrimoine mondial de l’UICN 3 : une évaluation de la conservation de tous les sites du patrimoine mondial naturel
A global assessment of the conservation status of UNESCO World Heritage Sites reveals concerning trends, with only 30% meeting or exceeding the highest conservation standards. The study, based on three cycles of evaluations since 2014, highlights significant threats to natural values in these sites and questions their effectiveness as a tool for biodiversity protection. Los Katíos National Park, recognized for its unique ecosystems, is among those facing persistent challenges despite international recognition. This analysis serves as a critical indicator for measuring progress toward global biodiversity goals post-2020.
Lineamientos de planificación para la integración transfronteriza de áreas protegidas a partir de la priorización de sus valores naturales. Caso de estudio: región natural colombo-venezolana Macizo del Tama
A transboundary conservation strategy for Los Katíos National Park (Colombia) and Tamá National Park (Venezuela), part of the Macizo del Tama region, highlights the critical role of cross-border ecological connectivity in preserving Andean ecosystems. The study identifies key natural values that should guide integrated planning to enhance biodiversity protection. It employs a prioritization framework to assess ecological systems spanning both parks, addressing challenges posed by national borders while emphasizing their strategic location for conservation efforts.
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