Climatic stability in the Brazilian Cerrado: implications for biogeographical connections of South American savannas, species richness and conservation in a biodiversity hotspot

Research reveals that climatic stability is a stronger predictor of squamate reptile richness in the Brazilian Cerrado than current climate variables, challenging traditional biogeographical assumptions about South American savannas. The study used machine-learning models to project the Cerrado's distribution across four time periods—current, mid-Holocene (6 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), and Last Interglacial (120 ka)—and identified two savanna corridors: an eastern coastal corridor during the Last Interglacial and an Andean corridor during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, it predicted a large refugial area in the northeastern Cerrado, suggesting that Bolivian savannas should be included within the Cerrado range, contrary to previous hypotheses linking it to the Chaco and Caatinga biomes. The findings highlight the importance of climatic stability maps for future biodiversity studies and conservation planning.

Werneck, F. P., Nogueira, C., Colli, G. R., Sites, J. W., & Costa, G. C. (2012). Climatic stability in the Brazilian Cerrado: implications for biogeographical connections of South American savannas, species richness and conservation in a biodiversity hotspot. Journal of Biogeography, 39(9), 1695–1706. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02715.x