The past, present, and future distribution of Calanthe graciliflora: implications for conservation and phylogeography

Global warming threatens the long-term survival of Calanthe graciliflora, a cold-tolerant orchid endemic to China. Using ecological niche models (ENMs) and 75 occurrence records, researchers projected its distribution across six time periods—from the Last Interglacial to the 2070s—and identified critical climate variables shaping its habitat. Historically, suitable areas contracted to refugia in the Qinling and Mount Wuyi regions during glacial periods, underscoring their importance for biodiversity conservation. Future projections warn of significant habitat loss, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation strategies. This study is the first to apply MaxEnt modeling to infer historical refugia while simultaneously analyzing future shifts, providing crucial insights for phylogeography and climate-adaptive conservation planning.

Guo, P., Lu, A., Zheng, J., Chen, L., Wu, S., Hu, C., Li, M., Huang, W., & Zhai, J. (2025). The past, present, and future distribution of Calanthe graciliflora: implications for conservation and phylogeography. Nature Conservation, 60, 21–38. https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.60.156661