Anticipated Inversion and Visibility Conditions over Glacier Bay with a Changing Climate

Future climate change in Glacier Bay, part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site Kluane / Wrangell-St. Elias / Glacier Bay / Tatshenshini-Alsek, is projected to alter atmospheric inversions and visibility conditions, with complex implications for air quality and cruise-ship tourism. While warmer temperatures may reduce inversion duration by 4.5 hours on average, decreased wind speeds could increase inversion frequency by 4%, affecting pollutant retention. Despite these changes, season-spatially averaged visibility is expected to remain stable, though it may degrade later in the tourist season due to wetter conditions and increased biogenic NOx emissions. The study used a RCP4.5 climate scenario downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, comparing 2006-2012 with 2026-2032 under identical cruise-ship conditions to isolate climate-driven effects.

Mölders, N., & Gende, S. (2015). Anticipated Inversion and Visibility Conditions over Glacier Bay with a Changing Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 06(05), 515–537. https://doi.org/10.4236/jep.2015.65048